Despite another quarter of value decline and the well documented macroeconomic challenges of a potential recession and
geopolitical tensions, there’s clear evidence that the builders merchants sector turned a corner as 2024 came to a close.
Positivity around sentiment continues to grow, with this acting as a reference point for anticipated future growth.
Value decline for Q4 stood at -0.5% against 2023 Q4, which is a noticeable improvement from the -7.0% seen in Q1 against 2023 Q1. The most positive indicator has been a return to volume growth, with Q4 up by 2.3% against last year. Price growth was negative for the first time in years, seeing a decline of -2.7% in the same time frame, influenced mostly by Bricks and Timber.
From a full year perspective 2024 has seen a value decline of -4.1% against 2023, while 2023 itself saw a decline of -5.2% against 2022. The shift in volume and pricing is again evident, with volume declining by -13.8% from 2022 and 2023, but improving to -4.3% from 2023 to 2024. Price growth sat at 10.0% from 2022 to 2023, but slowed down to a minimal increase of 0.2% from 2023 to 2024.
Focusing on the most recent quarter there were continued improvements for Heavy Building Materials and Timber &
Joinery, with both now only decreasing by -0.2% and -2.6% in value respectively when compared to 2023 Q4. Landscaping
returned to growth, increasing by 3.2%. There is however a contrasting trend where both Heavy Building Materials and
Timber & Joinery saw volume growth and overall price declines and Landscaping saw the opposite.
An analysis of Heavy Building Materials shows strong quarterly value performances for the likes of Blocks, Plaster and
Roofing Tiles, while Bricks and Blocks drive volume increases. Timber has been one of the best performing subcategories in
Timber & Joinery, with Sheet Materials and to a lesser extent Mouldings both seeing more negative indicators. Fencing &
Gates was the key driver behind the positive shift seen in Landscaping.
In the smaller categories Tools had quarterly value growth of 8.8%, driven by strong Hand Tools sales. There was also
growth for Workwear and Safetywear, as well as Services, while Renewables & Water Management saw the largest value
decline.
As always a new year brings with it a new set of opportunities and challenges. The most pressing of these will be the recent Autumn Budget and the anticipated changes coming into effect in April, which could derail any anticipated and hoped for growth in the second half of 2025.
