Third quarter sales performance saw a very small decline amidst increased pessimism from within the sector about future market activity. This pessimism is aligned with most macroeconomic indicators, with uncertainty around government budgets and policies as a key component. Geopolitical tensions continue to play its role, while a predicted stock market correction due to AI has started moving to the forefront at the end of the year. All in all, a gloomy picture, not only for the remainder of 2025, but most of 2026.
There has been a continuation of volume driving market activity, with the overall Q3 on Q3 value decline of -0.1% balanced between volume growth of 0.7% and an average price decline of -0.8%. The previous two quarters were the first in more than two years to see growth against the previous year’s quarter, so year-to-date value growth remains positive at 1.2%, driven by volume growth of 2.8%.
Heavy Building Materials has seen a value decline of -1.7% against 2024 Q3, with volume and average price down by -0.4% and -1.3% respectively. The main trends in the underlying data show strong volume growth for aggregates, while bricks, cement and insulation also had growth. Blocks were the key driver behind the volume decline, but there were also declines for plaster, plasterboard and roofing tiles. From an average price perspective, the main drivers behind the decline were aggregates, cement and insulation.
Timber & Joinery value was up by 2.1% against 2024 Q3, with volume up by 2.4%. Average pricing was down by -0.3% against 2024 Q3. Timber performance stood out, with growth in both volume and average price. This performance was, however, negated to an extent by both volume and average price declines for sheet materials, while there were also declines for mouldings and roof windows. Cladding again showed good performance, following on from the previous quarter.
Landscaping and most of the other smaller categories saw value growth in the most recent quarter. Renewables & Water Management was the best performing, up by 6.0% in value. Landscaping itself was up by 0.7% in value, while Kitchens & Bathrooms saw growth of 2.9%. Decorating saw the largest value decline, down by -3.3%, while Ironmongery and Workwear & Safetywear also saw value declines.
The fourth quarter is expected to be challenging, with confidence in market conditions continuing to deteriorate. The main immediate focus is the upcoming budget and the hope that it will at least provide some form of certainty as to what needs to be navigated in what will likely be a difficult year.
