After finishing 2025 with an 8% increase in volumes, the sales forecast for paving for the year ahead is looking flat.

In my last comment I mentioned the unprecedented rainfall in India which has flooded sandstone quarries in the north of the country. As I write this, the mines are yet to reopen and we are currently looking at the end of February before processing of new stone in India begins.

The disruption to India’s supply chain in H1 is going to be significant, and this is driving up the price. Porcelain – once the premium paving offer – is now cheaper per metre than sandstone. With shipping increases also expected over the next few months, we don’t expect the price of sandstone to come down in 2026.

Supply chain issues such as these are out of our hands, but planning and preparing for the challenge ahead is the way forward.

We spent most of Q4 visiting merchants to explain the situation on the ground in India and to encourage them to plan ahead and ensure they have good stocks going into Q1. Many have heeded our honest advice; some were told that other suppliers have enough stock to last until Q3. This seems unlikely, as that’s enough paving to fill Wembley Stadium several times over!

As well as being open with customers, we are further preparing against shortages on key product lines with new porcelain alternatives to our sandstone bestsellers. These have the look of natural stone, which is very on trend this year, but with all the benefits of porcelain such as slip, frost and algae resistance. There is also growing interest in new clay paving, which has good availability.

How much of a problem Indian sandstone shortages will be largely hinges on what the RMI market does this year. The latest GfK Consumer Confidence Index for January 2026 indicates that people are positive about their own finances, albeit less so about the economy, and the Major Purchase Index is up 1 point up on December 2025, and it’s 10 points better than January 2025. People want to spend their money but will that major purchase be a new garden or an outdoor space.