In the second quarter, the trade paint market experienced a decline of -0.8% in the moving annual total (MAT), attributed to a notable -0.5% decrease in Q2 year-on-year volume sales. This dip was primarily influenced by different numbers of working days and by continued delays in project starts due to subdued, and some months of very wet weather.

Between bank base rates, consumer confidence & ambitious new government signals, there’s growing optimism for a resurgence in construction market activity. Many homeowners have had to navigate extreme volatility in the housing and mortgage markets, with many facing the big decision of whether to move or stay put for another year. With activity picking up now, numerous individuals are expected to resume their painting endeavours, signalling a potentially stronger second half.

Nevertheless, Private Housing RMI continues at suppressed levels, while New Build will pick up as we move into 2025 after a difficult year. Non-Housing RMI volumes remain strong, and commercial premises, some preparing for a summer of sport, offices, education and existing social housing benefitting from continued investment.

Decorative trade paint volume sales to builders’ merchants finished down double digits in Q2 year-on-year, indicating that there is potential for greater growth in the channel, as it currently lags the performance of the total market.

There was a one-point improvement in GfK’s Consumer Confidence Index in July to -13, up from -30 in July 2023. And there was a further seven-point improvement to -16 in GfK’s Major Purchase Index, up from -32 a year ago. Along with a two-point pickup to -8 in consumers’ Personal Finance Situation in the past 12 months, looking forward, the two measures generally translate into an increase in home improvement projects.

Reports of workloads from professional decorators remain strong, with many decorators reporting frustration at managing their time and customers’ expectations with many exterior projects being delayed, adding to our expectations that the trade paint market will be robust in the second half of 2024 in terms of volumes.