UK boiler volumes were flat in Q4 2025 year on year, while heat pump installations climbed sharply. First-half 2025 gas boiler sales were up 5%. Heat pumps, though a fraction of the market, were up 30%, driven by heightened public awareness, the £7,500 Boiler Upgrade Scheme and mounting regulatory pressure.

The Future Homes Standard (FHS) and the Clean Heat Market Mechanism (CHMM) are reshaping the landscape, and the shift towards low-carbon heating is no longer theoretical. It’s underway. The 2035 boiler ban was scrapped, but developers are already phasing out fossil fuel systems to meet carbon targets and future-proof their portfolios ahead of the Future Homes Standard implementation

About 125,000 Air Source Heat Pumps were installed in 2025 (up 25% from 96,000 in 2024), while annual boiler sales neared 1.35 million, but the gap is narrowing.

The UK’s inefficient housing stock has a median EPC rating of Band D. We must retrofit millions of homes and deliver hundreds of thousands of new ones, with low-carbon heating at their core to meet Net Zero by 2050. This is not swapping components, it’s systemic transformation.

Success hinges on deep collaboration. Developers need partners to co-design integrated systems that deliver low-temperature performance, simplify installation, and reduce risk. R&D teams must align with build strategies, and products engineered for performance, speed, and sustainability. Transparent lifecycle data, low-carbon materials, and smart controls are essential.

The UK heating industry stands at an inflection point, but…

The running cost disparity (electric v gas) and high upfront prices dissuade many homeowners from heat pumps. Government grants help, but long-term solutions (energy price reform, higher carbon pricing, or mass production economies of scale) are needed to persuade buyers.

Scaling heat pumps from 100,000 to 400,000/year installs will require thousands more trained heat pump engineers. The industry has 130,000 Gas Safe engineers versus a few thousand MCS-certified heat pump installers. Enticing new talent into the sector and training are urgent.

Electrifying heating puts a load on the grid, which needs an upgrade and smart demand management as heat pump numbers grow. This is an opportunity for innovation in thermal storage and grid-interactive appliances.

However, the FHS and Net Zero drive are a once-in-a-generation chance to upgrade Britain’s heating infrastructure. Let’s take it!