After a softening in demand across most timber products in the second half of 2022, hopes for a stronger start to 2023 have yet to materialise.

From a sharp drop-off in January, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) output figures showed an uplift of +2.4% in February, subsequently revised to +2.6%, which continued marginally up in the March figures (+0.2%) from an increase in new work (0.7%), partially offset by a decline in repair and maintenance of 0.6% on the month.

New housing output fell and, with inflation and interest rates still high, affordability is low and there’s little incentive for people to buy. Consumer confidence improved in Q1, but it remains comparatively low, and the media seem intent on keeping it that way. It’s no wonder that mortgage approvals in January 2023 fell to their lowest number since January 2009, the fifth consecutive monthly fall. The dip in housebuilding does little to support timber sales which are already seeing lower volumes and softening pricing. Coupled with high manufacturing costs, some mills in the UK and Europe are having enforced downtime as demand is lower than capacity.

But there are reasons to be cheerful. The Federation of Master Builders was positive about repair, maintenance and improvement (RMI) prospects in their latest State of Trade Survey. In it, members noted an increase of +12% in RMI workloads compared to Q4 2022, and a +14% increase in enquiries quarter-on-quarter.

A year on from Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, there is still no product coming from Russia or Belarus. Losing two important players from the supply chain has left significant gaps, including some 55mln m3 roundwood equivalents a year.

According to Timber Development UK, overall timber import volumes dropped -8.7% in January 2023 compared to January 2022. The UK is actively trying to strengthen its trading partnerships with other European countries to fill the void. Increased volumes of softwood from Sweden, Finland and Ireland helped to ease the flow of product into the UK in Q1. Long may those trading lines flourish.

Twenty twenty-three will almost certainly be another tough one for the timber industry. But as a material which is integral to more sustainable methods of construction, there will be sunnier days to come, I’m sure.