Polypipe Comment: Q3 2022
Considering the somewhat turbulent quarter we’ve witnessed at the heart of government – and that’s putting it mildly – commercial activity across the civils and green urbanisation sectors has, by contrast, remained relatively steady over the last three months. The easing of building material availability continues, albeit at a relatively slow pace, and quotation volumes are holding firm. In certain markets, they are even slightly ahead of last year.
Grounds for optimism? With some analysts predicting an economic recession deeper and longer than we’ve seen for a generation, it would be a brave person to say so. The fact is, that for the short term at least, there is no consensus because the fundamentals keep changing. Not until the UK’s budget strategy is in place, and interest rates and inflation are given time to moderate will we able to determine forecasts with any degree of certainty.
The inevitable consequence of this is that project starts are being pushed back. We see this to a lesser extent in publicly funded infrastructure programmes, as witnessed by the relatively stable civils numbers. It is across residential markets where we see delays having potentially the greatest impact. The early signs are there, but again it won’t be until the Chancellor has made his Autumn Statement that we will have any indication of future trends.
Climate change is never far from the headlines, and with COP27 upon us, we are seeing again how communities around the world, and not just those under immediate threat, look to the strategies and actions agreed at the conference for assurance that there is a unified approach to tackling the issue. From our own experience in the UK, we understand that change on the scale needed isn’t easy, but the momentum is driving investment and legislative commitment is growing. Let’s hope we see further proof positive from Egypt at the end of November.