Twenty twenty-three ended much as we would have expected for a normal Q4, with seasonal trade patterns returning. Despite last year having its challenges, the mood in the industry seemed pretty positive in Q4 and most people were upbeat about prospects for 2024.

However, much of this optimism has already dissipated as escalating tensions in the Middle East are negatively impacting our industry’s supply chain.

Houthi rebel attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea – part of the main shipping route from Asia to Europe – mean that getting Indian sandstone and porcelain to the UK is being delayed as safer routes take longer. When those ships arrive in Europe, port congestion is again becoming an issue, making it difficult to predict when stock will arrive. To add to the challenges, shipping costs have gone up fivefold (at the time of writing) from $600 to $3000 per container. Price increases to cover the additional transport costs are looking inevitable.

To get ahead of availability issues and price increases, some merchants are panic buying stock. We know from the Covid years that this only leads to further scarcity, additional price increases and merchants ending up with an excess of stock on the ground. We aren’t accepting orders above normal levels or new customers while availability is an issue, but we know other suppliers are.

We source most of our porcelain and printed products from Europe, so there is still plenty of product available to merchants. It’s entry level Indian porcelain and sandstone which look likely to have limited availability over the coming months – or until the political unrest reaches a resolution. The thinner 16mm porcelain slabs are also only available from India.

Despite the geopolitical impact on the supply chain, we are still hoping for a good 2024. Greige and other neutral toned paving is overtaking dark grey paving as the most popular choice for customers and is certainly our hot tip for merchants looking to offer something new for 2024 to entice customers in. With consumer confidence up in January, perhaps homeowners are less doom-and-gloom about the prospects for the year ahead and could give the market a much-needed lift.