It’s been a very challenging first quarter for paving sales.  Demand has been subdued, mostly due to the wet weather. One landscaper in Wales remarked to me that they had had 3 dry days all year! We are expecting to have a good year, so once the finer weather comes, we should see a pick up in sales.

In our last comment we highlighted the major hike in shipping costs caused by the redirection of ships via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. Just as prices looked like they might come down, a cargo ship struck a bridge in Baltimore, putting any planned decreases on ice. Add to this the resurgence of attacks by Somali pirates and it looks like we are in for a rough ride on shipping this year.

The knock-on effect of the revised shipping routes is that Indian sandstone and porcelain now takes 60-90 days to arrive in the UK – sometimes longer when there is port congestion. Previously it took 5 weeks, so we are encouraging merchants to plan ahead as restocks on core lines are taking longer.

The shipping challenges for Indian product has been somewhat fortuitous for porcelain products from Europe. Many in the industry were tipping 2024 to be Indian porcelain’s year, but with shorter lead times and more stable pricing, European product looks set to maintain its advantage.

There’s a few different trends coming in 2024. Greige is the one to watch, as neutral, earthy tones are in, mirroring interior design trends.  Dark grey paving is less popular, but there will still be base demand for it as it’s so low maintenance. Mosaics for small areas are making a comeback in 2024, and demand for outdoor kitchens is holding strong. We would advise merchants to update displays to showcase these trends, as well as accessories like cladding and walling, which offer landscapers a mix of colours and textures to play with.

Looking ahead, a more positive forecast for the weather and shipping will hopefully deliver a less tempestuous Q2.