GfK’s Consumer Confidence Index is at historic lows (-41 in July) as the after-affects of Covid on the Global supply chain combine with global disruption from the war in Ukraine.

A 2-point improvement in hopes for our personal financial situation for the next 12 months, and a 1-point improvement in Major Purchases Index (eg a new bathroom) might reflect optimism over imminent change at the top of the UK government, but the overall index is crushed by a cost of living crisis.

Anecdotal reports reinforce the shifting priorities of hard pressed homeowners, particularly those under 45. Their incomes may be higher than older homeowners but the cost of their outgoings have risen sharply over the last year. A kitchen upgrade, new patio, windows and doors, or bathroom may have to wait while homeowners struggle with rising energy and food prices. But older homeowners who have paid off their mortgage, or are near to doing so, with savings in the bank – the Bank of Mum and Dad – are still spending. As a window manufacturer put it: ‘we’re selling more premium windows, colour and aluminium to the Haves, but white windows have become a luxury to those who normally buy them. They don’t have the money.’

Internal categories like bathrooms were slower to benefit from the pickup after Covid, but have continued to grow while other categories have fallen. Shower enclosures, especially the more premium, are doing better than most.

Until a new PM is elected in September we don’t know where the UK is heading, and we’ll have to wait while a new cabinet get its feet under the table. As for the really big questions on where everyone is going to live, how we’re going to keep the lights on, and prepare and pay for climate change, they’re unlikely to be resolved quickly however important they are.

Freight rates have fallen from earlier highs, but they are still very costly and given China’s internal problems they are unlikely to reduce to the levels of two years ago.

Looking beyond the current turbulence, the long term prospects for construction, housing and improvement, bathrooms and showering spaces have never looked stronger.