The fourth quarter of 2022 continued to decline in volumes. Last year was certainly a game of two halves with the second half average around 20% lower than the first. The start of 2023 continued that theme of further declining volumes. While enquiries have not shown as dramatic a drop, one must surmise a portion of these enquires are people going through the motions and will not be hot projects until the financial situation stabilises.

Red flags are everywhere and ongoing strikes across the public sector, with demands of extremely large increases, continue to pressure private sector pay solutions. Lots of companies have already provided cost of living contributions to support their valued staff and more increases will be required to support them during 2023. Unless households have plenty of spare cash, large purchases such as extensions and renovations will be delayed. National house builders have all reported new house sales down around 30% in Q4, which for lintels will mean a quiet Q2 2023. It will take time for interest rate increases, house price levels and mortgage competitiveness to settle, and the outlook is subdued.

All business will be required to review their cost base, increasing wages to retain staff so we have a sustainable business, and as a sector we all have a responsibility to encourage more people to want to come into our sector – a difficult mix of priorities! Manufacturers will be seeing material prices stabilise, but over recent years have only recovered material hikes while other inflationary costs continue to pressure that very cost base. Merchants who enjoyed significant pound-note earnings on the back of material increases will no doubt be competing harder from smaller volumes.

We are in this together, and Keystone is focused on working with loyal partners to make sure we are best placed with a full service package to help builders build to the new Building Regulations 2022. These include a full range of wider cavities and thermal performing lintels. Merchants will need to review minimum and maximum stock levels and review their stockholding, so the right lintels are in stock when those opportunities arise. Looking at historic sales figures is no longer how to stock plan for steel lintels. We are at your service.