In the third quarter, the trade paint market showed signs of recovery, with the Moving Annual Total (MAT) growth improving to -1.5%. This was largely driven by a +1.6% year-on-year increase in Q3 volume sales. The uplift was primarily influenced by a delayed start to projects due to previously poor weather, with activity in the paint industry showing the expected lag as paint goes on last.

The release of the first Labour budget in 14 years has impacted consumer confidence, signalling inflation is going to stay higher for longer with mortgage rates likely to remain elevated for an extended period. This is dampening an otherwise growing optimism for a construction market rebound. That optimism was further knocked by the recent collapse of ISG, which sent shockwaves across the industry. Despite these challenges, the Construction Products Association (CPA) has updated its forecast, predicting a -2.9% decline in construction output in 2024, followed by a 2.5% increase in 2025 and further growth in 2026.

Private Housing Repair, Maintenance, and Improvement (RMI): As the second largest sector within the market, Private Housing RMI remains significantly down. Professional painter and decorator booking trends, heavily influenced by seasonal patterns, are down compared to last year, with London experiencing particularly subdued activity.

New Build Sector: While the new build sector has faced a challenging year, forecasts indicate a resurgence in 2025 as market conditions improve.

Non-Housing RMI: Volume growth in non-housing RMI has stabilised following a surge of commercial investments preparing for events and seasonal activities in offices, educational facilities, and social housing. This segment appears to have benefitted from increased spending earlier in the year.

Sales of decorative trade paint to builders’ merchants declined significantly in Q3 on a year-over-year basis, with double-digit reductions. This underperformance suggests a gap in growth potential, as builders’ merchants are currently lagging behind the broader market’s overall performance.