In this past quarter we have seen more positive trends despite continued raw material shortages. The market appears to have stabilised in the last two months with September down just 0.7%.

September 2022 had an unexpected additional non-working day due to the passing of Queen Elizabeth II. Promotional activities were suspended or postponed during the mourning period and many retailers and workplaces closed their doors on the day of the funeral as a sign of respect. Despite that, total paint market volume has not fallen as intensely as was expected compared with the same period in 2021, and by only -0.9% compared with 2019. The rolling quarterly measure is now just 2% lower than the same period last year.

Interior Trim and Masonry paint had a very good 2021, so year on year comparisons show that these went through a harder correction with the Moving Annual Total volume down -13.3% and -15.4% respectively. However, Premium Emulsion beat expectations as the only category in growth with volume up +1.5% year-to-date compared with year to date 2021 (source is Actualise Research best estimates August 2022).

According to the ONS, total new housing output appears strong (being up 12% in August, the latest month available) but repair and maintenance work fell as growth slowed sharply in recent months.

Retail trend analysis from the financial crisis in 2008 showed many consumers abandoned complete projects, scaling down in favour of interior work. Similar trends can be observed today, and even though technically we are not yet in recession, consumers believe otherwise and behave appropriately.

Retail paint sales have responded sharply to the deepening cost of living crisis with consumer sentiment at rock bottom: 11.6 ML of paint was sold in the retail channel in August 2022, 11% less than in 2021, and in August the moving annual total volume now sits -17% below the same measure in 2021. However, the Trade Paint market is performing better than anticipated as we run into the end of the year.