Unfortunately, Quarter Three continued to exhibit the sluggish market conditions that were carried over from the first half of the year. House builders and independent merchants remain gloomy about the rest of this year and the early months of 2025, but with five year and two year fixed interest rates now at their lowest point for 12 months we believe we are approaching the bottom of the market.

Inflation has lifted to 2.3% in October, but this does not appear to derail the planned drop in the Bank of England base rate. Repair maintenance and improvement (RMI) activity remains as subdued as new build activity, and reduced household disposable income and a relatively neutral budget from a household perspective will not add the much-needed stimulus.

The government’s target of 300,000 new houses a year is welcomed, and the budget did give some support to public sector new build but that isn’t sufficient to create the stimulus to meet the 300,000 new homes target.

Cost inflation is a continuing concern, coming from both internal and external forces. The self-inflicted inflationary hit from the budgetary double whammy of increased employers National Insurance and the raised minimum wage will undoubtedly manifest themselves as price increases in the first half of 2025. The new government in the United States has also indicated the potential for a tariff driven trade war. That can only lead to increased material inflation.

The independent merchant sector continues to outperform the overall distribution market, and we believe customer service levels and a commitment to long term strategic partnerships are central to our shared success. As a privately owned business, Brett Martin continues to invest in production and distribution capacity to ensure we can service our merchant partners when the upturn eventually arrives.