Dulux Comment: Q2 2025

The trade paint market continues to improve as the year progresses, with volume growth so far at +2% when compared to this time last year. Exterior categories like masonry have contributed to this growth as the weather in the first six months has been more favourable than last year.

We see signs of strengthening in painter and decorator work pipelines, particularly for domestic repair, maintenance and improvement (RMI) work, which is driving the recovery so far this year. As this area has improved, there’s also been a return to purchases of premium aesthetic brands which are helping to inject value into the market.

Our outlook for the second six months of the year expects the market to remain in growth territory, especially as housing transactions earlier in the year, brought forward to beat changes to stamp duty, are likely to contribute to more painting and decorating jobs being undertaken in the coming months.

As always, moving home is a significant trigger for decorating and home improvement markets, as most people prepare it to look its best for sale, and then refresh and personalise their new home to their liking shortly after moving in.

Should consumer spending falter in the run up to the Autumn budget, as it may do given consumers’ weakening confidence in the face of gloomy economic news and warnings of potential tax rises, then we’re likely to see higher savings rates, as those who can save prepare themselves to ride out the risks of increased costs and greater uncertainty. If that happens, our positive outlook could turn south.

But consumer confidence marches to its own drum and it’s often more resilient and capricious than observers expect. It can lift when a national sports team wins a final, a prime minister performs well on the world stage and makes the country feel good about itself, or even when the weather suddenly improves. So, we’re sticking with our positive view for now!