UK Trade Paint volumes softened further in Q2 with demand under pressure as construction and housing sectors weakened. Premium decorative products remain resilient, but the overall outlook has become more cautious as the year progresses.

June Trade Paint volume declined by -1.9% year on year. Adjusted for working days, it was notably softer at -6.4%. This leaves the market down -2.0% year to date, equivalent to a shortfall of around 1.6 million litres versus the prior year. Masonry accounts for the majority of that decline at approximately 1 million litres, reflecting ongoing weakness in exterior work. While masonry is significantly down year to date at -16%, second quarter performance improved relative to Q1 with Q2 at -14% year on year versus -20% in the first quarter. Emulsions were also softer than 2025 with Q2 highlighting more subdued demand.

Value has been more resilient than volume with June value growth at +7.4% year on year or +2.5% when adjusted for working days, lifting year to date value up +3.7%. Premium emulsion is a key driver of value growth, particularly across aesthetic and durable solutions such as Dulux Heritage and Dulux Trade Diamond Matt, while coloured emulsions support a positive mix and customer spend. Premium Aesthetics were especially strong in June with volume up +50% year on year, adding 0.4 million litres and +12.3% ahead year to date. Weaker masonry demand points to a likely shift in job mix toward interior from exterior projects.

Pressure on new housing and Domestic RMI remains evident with the twelve months to June volume at -7.2%. But three-month survey data shows a modest upward trend which may indicate that some areas of the market are beginning to stabilise. While construction softness is likely to persist through 2026, the market benefits from selective areas of consumer investment in home improvement and premium decorative finishes.

Regional diversity is also creating opportunities for manufacturers and merchants to outperform local demand trends with targeted product and service propositions.

Trade Paint volumes are likely to continue to soften in the second half, but there are reasons for cautious optimism for value. Premiumisation trends driving demand for coloured emulsions and decorative upgrades. and differing regional market dynamics should continue to provide resilience and opportunities for growth despite the challenging volume backdrop.