UK Trade Paint volume held up in Q1 2026, but the underlying picture is mixed, and the outlook for construction suggests there is increasing pressure ahead.

The market is essentially flat year‑to‑date at +0.2%, however momentum has softened with the rolling Moving Annual Total growth rate easing (from +1.8% to +0.8%), as a strong March 2025 comparator dropped out. March 2026 itself was positive year‑on‑year (+1.1%) but working‑day adjusted performance indicates demand was weaker than the headline suggests. Persistent rain in the first two months of the year affected building generally and external work particularly.

From a category perspective, the first quarter performance was supported by premium emulsion (with aesthetic and durable solutions like Dulux Heritage and Dulux Trade Diamond Matt), which is significantly ahead year‑to‑date (+10.2%), alongside a stronger mix into 1Q emulsions (such as Dulux Trade Vinyl Matt) versus 2025. We continue to see a positive performance from coloured emulsion which drives value and a positive mix within the category, demonstrating that homeowners and clients are wanting to transform spaces.

The construction pipeline is likely to have a further softening of the market, as set out in the Construction Products Association’s Spring 2026 forecast, with construction output predicted to fall by -2.5% in 2026, with significant declines forecast of -7.0% for Private Housing, the largest construction sector, and -8.0% for Private Housing RMI (Repair Maintain Improve), the second largest sector. These two are the largest sector demand drivers for Trade Paint volume.

Despite this, lightside decorative materials continue to provide opportunities to drive value and attachment rates to increase basket spend, alongside other construction categories.

For the rest of 2026, we expect to see the Trade paint market continue to soften, particularly in the second half when the effects of the Middle East war are likely to be felt. But there are causes for optimism, particularly from a value perspective, due to market sector and category trends, alongside a diverseness in UK regional performance.