The latest Plumbing & Heating Merchant Index (PHMI) report, published in August, shows Q2 2025 total value sales through specialist Plumbing & Heating merchants were up +2.0% compared to Q2 2024. Volumes sales were down -2.3% as prices rose +4.5%. With one less trading day in the most recent period, like-for-like value sales were +3.7% higher.

But quarter-on-quarter, total value sales for April to June 2025 were -11.9% lower than Q1 2025 (January to March 2025). Q2 volume sales and prices were both down -6.1% compared to Q1. With two less trading days, like-for-like value sales for Q2 were -9.0% lower.

June sales increased +5.6% year-on-year. Compared to the same month last year, volume sales were up +3.2% and prices rose +2.3%. There was one extra trading day this year, so like-for-like value sales were +0.6% higher.

Month-on-month, June value sales were down -1.1% compared to May. Volume sales were -0.5% lower and prices were down -0.7%. With an extra trading day in June, like-for-like value sales were down -5.8%.

Year-to-date, January to June 2025 value sales were +3.1% up on the same six months in 2024.

Total value sales for July 2024-June 2025 were up +2.0% against the same 12-month period the year before. Volume sales were up +3.9%, but prices decreased -1.9%. With one more trading day in the latest 12-month period, like-for-like value sales were +1.5% higher.

The PHMI Index for June 2025 was 94.5 with no difference in trading days compared to the base period.

Mike Rigby, Managing Director of MRA Research which produces the BMBI report says: “Specialist plumbing and heating merchants have done well to increase value sales in Q2, but the second half of 2025 looks less certain. It’s hard to see much improvement while businesses are still absorbing the Chancellor’s recent cost impositions, and while the Chancellor and Prime Minister are bracing the country for a round of tax rises in the autumn to plug another black hole in the public finances. Now would be a very good time for the Chancellor and Prime Minister to make good on their promises to clear the obstacles to build 1.5 million homes by the end of this parliament and get the economy growing

“A 0.25% cut in interest rates to 4% announced in August, the fifth since August last year, has yet to dial up growth and get people spending or the economy moving. Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, said the decision to cut interest rates was ‘finely balanced. Interest rates are still on a downward path… future rate cuts will need to be made gradually and carefully.’ With inflation expected to peak at 4% in September, the course of future rate cuts ‘is a bit more uncertain frankly,’ he said.

“The latest GfK consumer confidence index shows a one point drop in the public’s sentiment about the general economic situation, both in the last and the next 12 months. It’s down but a one-point drop could be considered a remarkably resilient response to a stream of feel-bad news. Encouragingly, the Major Purchase Index which is associated with home improvement project spend rose one point. But GfK’s savings index, which is not included in the confidence index, jumped seven points in July, meaning anyone who has spare cash is likely to be banking it for a rainy day.

“In the face of continuing uncertainty, all merchants can sensibly do is stay positive and wait for the stormy weather to pass.”

The Plumbing & Heating Merchant Index (PHMI) is the first to analyse point of sales data collated from specialist plumbing & heating merchants with combined annual sales of £3bn, to chart their performance month-to-month.

Based on data from NIQ GfK’s Plumbing & Heating Merchant Panel, which represents over 70% of the market by value, the report provides reliable data and a platform and voice for the industry, as well as for leading plumbing & heating brands. It is produced by MRA Research for the Builders Merchants Federation. There is no overlap or double counting between PHMI and the Builders Merchants Building Index (BMBI) sales data.

To download the latest report, or learn more about becoming an Expert, speaking on behalf of your market, visit www.phmi.co.uk.