Keystone Comment: Q4 2024
There were no big surprises in Q4 2024, as a steady but cautious steel lintels market recorded consistent overall tonnage, with the usual seasonal drop off in November and December that we expect to see at this time of year. Despite improved weekly sales per site, housebuilders are still grappling with slow site openings but perhaps the tide is finally beginning to turn. The latest provisional data published by the ONS suggests housing starts increased in the third quarter of 2024, up +10.9% on the previous quarter and +28.8% up on Q3 2023.
The increase in starts could be further kickstarted by reforms to the planning system to ease bottlenecks, which will give us the prospect of increased approvals and a much-needed pipeline of future projects.
If we are on the brink of a major uptick in housebuilding, as manufacturers we need to be ready to meet the demand for key products. To increase capacity and shore up reliability in the supply chain, continued investment in automation is essential to improve efficiency and adaptability.
Being prepared for it will also mean strengthening the partnerships manufacturers have with merchants. This can be achieved through better forecasting, stock planning, and supply chain collaboration to ensure the right stock is on the ground when customers need it. That’s key to maintaining a competitive edge in a dynamic market.
Having the right products in stock also depends on external factors. The ongoing shift in cavity widths is necessitating careful stock management from both merchants and manufacturers to avoid mismatches in supply. While enquiry levels indicate work is available, volumes remain modest.
Then there’s the long-anticipated Future Homes Standard, due to be unveiled this year following 2024’s consultation. It will give homebuyers a clearer choice between choosing older properties or energy-efficient new builds. Buyers are increasingly prioritising environmental impact in their decision-making so the sustainability and eco-performance of products must be a high priority consideration for merchants too.
Falling mortgage rates offered some relief in Q4 for buyers and those looking to extend their homes. We’ll have to wait and see if that is enough to drive up consumer confidence and spending in 2025 as inflationary pressures, driven by budgetary impacts, will likely push material costs higher.