As we navigate the evolving dynamics of the sector, while considering our budgets and plans for 2025 and beyond, the Government seems to be focussed on soundbites….300,000 houses a year is one that sticks in my mind.

In Wood Based Products, we have the sustainability story on our side which, from a ‘big picture’ perspective, should give us some comfort that the future is improving in our direction. However, we are at a junction where global market pressures, shifting economic landscapes, and policy decisions converge to test our resilience and adaptability.

What will happen to the imports of our key products? Chinese Plywood, for instance, looks likely to attract significant duty at some point soon to assist with Anti-Dumping. EUDR regulations to tackle deforestation and forest degradation in commodity supply chains will certainly reduce imports from some regions. But it looks like implementation has been delayed by the European Parliament for a year, to allow the process administration to be adopted fairly. All hurdles to be jumped!

The UK will most likely see a recovery of new house build activity – yet not to the volumes the new Government are stating. A 10% growth would be the best position we could hope for in 2025 and considering the 2024 low base, that won’t consume the production of manufacturers nor fill the vehicles of builders’ and timber merchants. Most of the domestic growth (if any) will come from the Repair, Maintenance & Improvement (RMI) sector. As we see the interest rate drop, along with inflation, then consumer confidence will improve and some of the accumulated higher savings will be released. With homeowners increasingly investing in upgrades and sustainability-focused retrofitting, businesses positioned to support this shift will find significant opportunities.

The US has seen some improvement in recent weeks, in the supply/demand balance of both wood-based panels and sawn timber – let’s see what happens as the Trump Presidency gets closer, and we see what initiatives he will bring.