At the end of Q3 the trade paint market stood at 1% growth year-on-year adjusted for working days. Despite fluctuating weather, the woodcare market has grown by 7% year-on-year (based on actualising research best estimates). Against a gloomy economic outlook, growth of these markets provides assurance of the continued value of paint and finishes to wider society.

The trade paint market correlates with movements in the housing market. The successive Bank Rate increases have muted housing market activity, resulting in fewer housing transactions, especially for new build properties. While this has led to reports of less paint being used in the new build sector, recovery has been good for the volume used in the existing housing market. Volume growth is strongest for private dwellings, but there are green shoots of recovery in the existing social housing stock.

Our market has historically benefited from the “improve not move” mindset of homeowners that manifests itself in times of housing market turbulence. This year has been no exception and it’s likely to be an underlying driver of the growth in existing housing volumes.

Given Bank Rate forecasts, do not expect a drop until we are closer to 2025, and we are likely to see this trend continue, offering opportunities for the market to maintain volumes in the near future. Indeed, reports of workloads from professional decorators remain stable for the time being, adding to our expectations that the trade paint market volume will continue slightly ahead of 2022.

Sales to builders merchants are currently running 2% down year-to-date on last year (GfK Builders’ Merchant Paint Report), indicating the potential for greater growth in the channel, as it currently lags the performance of the total market.

As we look towards Q4, and even Q1 of 2024, growth expectations for the trade paint market remain tempered by many of the current market drivers which are set to remain.