Sales continued to slow in Q4. Pre-Covid we would expect a lull in sales in December and January when the weather is typically unforgiving for landscaping projects, however we’ve lost a lot of seasonality over the past few years thanks to the milder winters.

What makes it harder for us to assess the true state of the market is that we only see the sales we make to merchants – not how much stock they are selling. Paving sales may have dipped as consumers tighten their belts and ‘needs’ are prioritised over ‘wants’ like a new patio, but falling prices are discouraging merchants from buying product until they have shifted the more expensive stock they have on the ground and they are still heavily stocked from Q3.

In Q4, natural stone had a resurgence in popularity as plummeting shipping prices from India have brought the product price down and availability is good. Conversely, European porcelain paving – which had a spell of being cheaper and more available than natural stone during Covid – has risen in price as energy costs fuel higher manufacturing outlays.

The upshot is that natural stone is now more affordable for lower cost patios, and it’s a great product. While they may be impacted by the recent price increases, porcelain sales are unlikely to fall dramatically as merchants are well-versed in selling it as a premium product and we know most high-end landscapers are booked up until the summer.

Looking ahead to 2023, greige is still the colour trend to watch for, and DIY is likely to be a growth area as homeowners save money on labour costs by laying paving themselves. The RMI market is certainly not a write-off.

We have a library of support videos to help DIYers lay our products correctly for the best finish. To make life easier for them, merchants may want to consider deals which offer everything required to lay a patio in a single-priced bundle. People perceive product bundles as being good value for money and they are an enticing prospect for novice, cash-strapped consumers.